15: GDP Figures & NIESR Economic Outlook

Overall GDP fell by 0.1% in March after no growth in February (revised down from 0.1% growth). Services fell by 0.2% was the main contributor to March’s fall in GDP, and manufacturing also fell in the month by 0.2%; however, these falls were partially offset by construction which grew by 1.7%. Monthly GDP is now 1.2% above its pre-pandemic level (February 2020).

The National Institute of Economic Social Research (NIESR) released a full UK economic outlook last week, forecasting GDP, inflation, incomes, and consumption over 2022 and the medium term. NIESR expects GDP to increase 3.5% in 2022 – declining in Q3 and Q4 – then increase by 0.8% in 2023 and 0.9% in 2024. The medium-term outlook for GDP growth is slow even by the standards of recent history, returning to 1.5% only in 2026. The combination of shocks – Brexit, Covid-19, and the recent shocks to energy prices, is set to leave the incomes of people in the UK permanently lower.